Northerly Stakes Preview and Tips 07/12/24

Well, this is it! The final Australian Group One of the year and boy has 2024 been an epic year with so many highlights. There have been so many Group One races that have captured my attention, but now we have just one left, the Northerly Stakes at Ascot Racecourse this Saturday.

After the Spring Racing Carnival over East, our attention has turned to the West as the spotlight has been on Ascot for the past couple of weeks with the Railway Stakes and the Winterbottom Stakes last week. We see a full field in the 2024 Northerly Stakes and yet another open market.

My Saturday tips are hot off the presses for the Northerly Stakes here at OnlyRacing and I’ve done all the heavy lifting, going through the entire field to find the runners that I believe are in for a cracking race. In total, I have put together five best bets, so you know there is something for everyone!

There’s not a lot of speed in this one and most of those with early speed have drawn a wide barrier. I think Marocchino in particular will look to cut across from barrier 13 and take the lead of the Northerly Stakes. Light Infantry Man, who jumps from barrier 15, should also be hot on Marocchino’s heels, or even look to take the lead.

It’s another Group One with an open market, but fancied runner Storyville will probably settle midfield and does have a lot of options with the low barrier. Attrition and Super Smink, who are currently on the second line of betting will likely also settle midfield. In a field of 16, the winner will likely need the right breaks at the right time.

Favouritism seems to be constantly changing for the Northerly Stakes. However, at the time of writing, Storyville, my best bet is the narrow $4.60 favourite with PlayUp. We’ve seen open field after open field this year in Group Ones and we get more of the same again for the final Group One of the calendar year.

A lot is going in Storyville’s favour in this one. She is looking for her third win in a row, so she comes into this one with some form under her belt. She is carrying just 50kg, which is a massive swing on the top weight and is 6.5kg less than the next lightest weight! The 3YO filly is jumping from barrier one and 3YO fillies have won this race four out of the last nine.

In a field like we see for the 2024 Northerly Stakes, I can make a genuine case for several of the runners. I do see something that I like in Super Smink though. She carries the second lightest weight in the race (56.5kg) and she is one of the more favoured runners in the market, currently going around with odds of $5.00 thanks to Bet365.

She comes through one of the more competitive lead-up races, the Railway Stakes and she drew terribly there, but still managed to finish in third place. Thankfully, she gets a better barrier draw this time out and jockey Chris Parnham is on board once again. She likes Ascot as well, this is her fourth race this prep at the track, with third being her worst result so far.

I can understand why she isn’t closer to the favourite, but double digits seem a bit generous, so Socks Nation is going down as my value bet for the Northerly Stakes. At the time of writing, Dabble is offering $14 for Socks Nation to win the Group One, which seems a little overs to me.

Socks Nation didn’t have the lead-up race many thought she could have, finishing 10th out of 16 in the Railway Stakes. She is a better horse than that one run, so I’m putting a line through that. The step up in distance may suit her as well. Remember, she is a Group One winner over the 2,200m. She gets a better draw this time and she could run a good race.

I’ve been a fan of the Chris Waller-trained Democracy Manifest for a while now and I think he is ready to step up for his first Group One placing (at the least). Another one where I’m putting a line through their last run as nothing seemed to go his way in the Railway Stakes last time out when finishing 14th out of 16 runners.

Just like Socks Nation, Democracy Manifest gets a better barrier draw this time out and the rise in trip looks to be ideal. Hopefully, he’ll settle a little closer to the leaders this time, find some cover and wait for the perfect time to strike. Democracy Manifest is currently paying $7.00 for the win, with QuestBet.

Numerian has been around the block a few times, that’s for sure, but I love his determination and he is trying to get his first win at Group One level after playing the bridesmaid on two out of seven occasions. The 9YO is currently going around with odds of $15 to win the Northerly Stakes, thanks to Bet Right.

He looks as though he is potentially setting himself up for a run in the Perth Cup, which takes place on New Year's Day, but I still think he is good enough for a top-three run here as well. The gelding has been trialling a lot as of late and comes into this one with only one proper race under his belt. He has had success at the track previously and could surprise.

All my Northerly Stakes horse racing tips and their odds can be found here:

Bookmaker	Tip	Odds
	Storyville (win)	$4.60
	Super Smink (each-way)	$5.00/$2.10
	Socks Nation (place)	$4.20
	Democracy Manifest (place)	$2.45
	Numerian (place)	$4.20