Friday Racing Tips - Moonee Valley Racecourse 17/02/23

Metro racing continues at Moonee Valley this Friday and there is a stacked eight race card with $725,000 of prize available across the racing. My suspicion is that there are some horses that will be at the end of their preps from a very successful Queensland Summer Carnival but also a few horses that will be gearing up for a big Autumn in other states. Regardless, it should make for a very exciting Friday evening of racing and I have run through the card below.

(Note: Odds provided by Playup)

Selections:
#4 - Defining (BEST BET) - $5.50
#1 - No Secret - $3.40
#7 - Diamond Model - $4.20
#6 - Cantina - $8.50

BEST BET - #4 - Defining (NEXT BEST)
I think this will be a close run race between the top picks and damn I am going to be angry if I am wrong to give Defining another chance here. She was great when fresh on Ballarat Cup Day and then again was good at Sandown second up. She then raced plainly at Sandown behind Wishlor Lass but did have some excuses there and now drops back in grade, gets Jamie Kah on and I think that $5.50 is enticing enough for me to be backing her.

THE DANGER - #1 - No secret
No Secret has been racing well for Michael Moroney. She’s had three weeks between runs when she last won over this track and distance and there she was given a near perfect opportunity to win when sliding through a gap, taking the lead and being far too good for them. If she was given the same here I would be super confident but she gets up in weight and has a shaky map for this, however on talent alone she will still be hard to beat.

VALUE BET  - #7 - Diamond Model 
Diamond Model knows how to win and that alone is valuable over some of these. She’s been in great form recently when second to the progressive Lady Tino, only being outrun late before heading to this track and distance at the beginning of the month and after blundering at the start she still was too good, taking over inside the 200m and drawing away from the field. She might want longer but only has to do the same as she did last time to win this.

Selections:
#4 - Diddley Squat  (NEXT BEST) - $3.50
#2 - Warm Smile - $4.00
#5 - Ivan’s Hero (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $7.00
#9 - Heavenly Eagle - $9.00

BEST BET - #4 - Diddley Squat- (NEXT BEST)
The Valley favours these inside runners and Diddley Squat should jump on the rail and be hard to run down. He did just that on debut at the Bool in maiden grade to dominantly torch them. He then tried to do the same at Sale but was nabbed late and I think Jockey rode him too quietly there. Now gets Shinn on, should find the front easily and I think he’ll look good.

THE DANGER - #2 - Warm Smile
Warm Smile is a British import that has been trained by the Maher and Eustace stable since moving to Australia half a year ago and looked really good on debut at Pakenham over the 1400m when second to the smart New Zealander, Rhinoceros. The form from that is shaping up and he did look close to a win there already. Fitter and smarter for the run second up is all it takes for me to be keen on him and I think he will go close here.

VALUE BET  - #5 - Ivan’s Hero (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY)
Ivan’s Hero is a Gelding I have a lot of time for. He has been solid in his two runs back from a spell, the first of which I am convinced he should have won but had no luck at Cranbourne before going to Kilmore and just not being suited on the tight track but still had too much on them to win impressively there. There’s definitely more in this than that but I think that he is up to the task and I will have something on come race day.

Selections:
#2 - Marcolt (BEST BET) - $4.60
#4 - Shock 'Em Ova - $4.60
#1 - Alverdun - $3.70
#8 - Kailash - $17.00

BEST BET - #2 - Marcolt (BEST BET)
Marcolt is an honest Gelding racing for Patrick Payne and he has been outstanding of late. He came on hard from the back at Sandown to win two runs ago before coming here over this distance and had every chance, looked the winner and then was grabbed late by Fighting Arrow to end up second. He only has to continue doing what he has been to win this and he goes on top for me in this field.

THE DANGER - #4 - Shock 'Em Ova
Shock ‘Em Ova is fitter now off the back of a first up run here and goes out to this distance which are both good signs. The Market was aware that he would need the run when he resumed a month ago over the Mile and was good from the back but never threatened Ima Shelby there. I think he has plenty of upside, has run outstandingly last prep with a few wins on the bounce and he should be right up there with a decent steer.

VALUE BET - #8 - Kailash
I’m looking for fitness and experience in this race and Kailash provides exactly that. Last time out he ran at Geelong when sitting off the speed and motoring home behind the smart Huguenot who led and dominated them. There just didn’t look enough speed there for his run style and now gets up in trip, should be hard fit third up and I think with his running style he can squeeze into the placings here.

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Shinn has been outstanding of late and has made a serious name for himself amongst some of the top stables in the Country. He gets a short but good looking booking of rides for Friday at the Valley, has ridden winners here before and if the market is anything to go by on his rides, he must be respected on all of them.

R1 - #1 - No Secret - $3.40
R2 - #4 - Diddley Squat - $3.50
R3 - #6 - Euro Dandy - $4.00
R4 - #4 - Mamaragan - $4.60

For My multi at the Valley I have selected from my best runners of the day but also have considered the track bias here as for the sprints it is clear that those close to the rail or those that jump on the bunny have an advantage and for the longer distance races am putting more weight on the jockey and if the horses are locally trained. Follow me below for a fun bet to track over race day.

There is a strong track Bias at the Valley in the distance ranges that I have tipped races in, skewed towards those that are close to the rail and those that have experience at this track. I have also factored in a strong orientation to which jockeys are aboard and if the horses are locally trained. Follow my multi below for an interesting value bet to track over race day.

R1 - #4 - Defining - PLC $1.80
R2 - #5 - Ivan’s Hero - PLC $2.25
R5 - #2 - Marcolt - PLC $1.75

Total Odds = $7.08
$50 Stake = $354.37 Return!

Odds provided by PlayUp, sign up for a new account here to get started.

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Moonee Valley Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R5)
1st: 2, 4
2nd: 1, 2, 4, 8
3rd: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8

$50 stake = 278% flexi

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If you are looking for the best promotions this week for Wednesday's racing I wouldn’t look past Unibet, often they offer odds boosts in addition to the money back promotions. Don’t forget to check your account as well for personal offers. 

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