So let’s get to the big stuff… who’s going to win? There’s almost no better feeling than saying you backed the winner of the Melbourne Cup!
I’m going to say I think the winner comes from the top 4 in the market - that is to say one of Vauban, Gold Trip, Without A Fight and Soulcombe.
At $3.20 the favourite, Vauban, is exceptionally short and if it stays that price at the jump it will be the 2nd shortest fav to have started the Cup since 2005, and the legendary Makybe Diva won her unprecedented third Melbourne Cup . In 2021 Incentivise started at $2.90 and ran second. Since 2005 the favourite has only won once: Fiorente saluted at $7 in 2013. Clearly this favourite is hot but I just can’t bring myself to have a win bet at that price.
Gold Trip - this horse is an absolute staying star, and of course he is last year’s winner. If he were to win on Tuesday it would be history making given that he would become only the 4th horse to win back to back Melbourne Cups: Archer (1861, 1862, Rain Lover (1968, 1969) Think Big (1974, 1975) and of course the mighty mare herself, Makybe Diva with the aforementioned trifecta of years. History is not on his side and with jockey Mark Zahra, who won on him last year, opting for a rival (Without A Fight) you’d have to be brave to back him to win at $4.60.
Without A Fight - this year’s Caulfield Cup winner has his own battle against history, but battles are there to be won right! Ethereal was the last horse to win the Melbourne Cup having won the Caulfield Cup in 2021. In the twenty years prior to that it happened 4 times, so it really does seem to be that the form lines into the Melbourne Cup have changed over this last generation. On his side as far as history is concerned is the fact that 8 horses since 2000 have carried 55kg or more. Given the fact that last year’s Cup winning jockey, Mark Zahra, has jumped off the mount that won last year, Gold Trip, in favour of this horse is another boost for his chances. So too is the fact that this year’s Caulfield Cup was run 6l faster than average. This is a live chance.
Soulcombe - such an interesting runner. Has terrible form out of the barriers, and continued that in his last run in the Caulfield Cup. Gave the field a 6l advantage in that hotly run race (see above re 6l above average speed of the race) and he still managed to finish a creditable 7th, only 6 lengths off the winner. Obviously the jump issues are a big concern, but if he manages to start well then he is a real live contender.
So who’s my money on from the above? With all said and done I am going to side with Without A fight at the price. Any one of the 4 could win but at $8 I am happy to have a bet.
If you fancy a roughie, then Virtuous Circle is my pick.
Putting the kudos glory of backing the sinner aside I want to turn my attention to the exotics. The Trifecta and the First Four are always a great bet in ‘The Cup’. With that in mind, my thoughts are below. I have given the horse race number to help with putting the bets together.
Trifecta:
For First: 3,5
For Second: 1,3,5,6
For Third 1,3,4,5,6,9,13,19
First Four
For First: 3,5
For Second: 1,3,5,6
For Third 1,3,4,5,6,9,13,19
For Fourth: 1,3,4,5,6,9,13,19
Whatever way you go I hope you find a winner and let’s look forward to another epic Melbourne Cup!