Melbourne Cup 2024: Top Contenders and Pretenders

It’s the most wonderful time of the year. No, it’s not Christmas. It’s the week leading up to the most important race of them all, the Melbourne Cup at Flemington Racecourse! While the Melbourne Cup field is yet to be officially announced, the third declarations have just taken place and only 35 contenders remain.

But, are they truly all contenders? I don’t think so! I’ve gone through the 35 runners who are still alive in the fight for a spot in the 2024 Melbourne Cup final field and found some that I think are genuine contenders. On the flip side, there are a few that I don’t think belong and are just pretending.

All my 2024 Melbourne Cup top contenders and pretenders can be found here. Don’t forget to keep an eye out for my official Melbourne Cup horse racing tips here at OnlyRacing, which will be live later in the week, once the final field is confirmed and the barrier draw has taken place.

With 35 runners to choose from, who stands out as a genuine contender for the 2024 Melbourne Cup? I’ve found five runners in particular that are worthy of a second look. Let’s just hope they all actually make it into the final field!

Decisions, decisions. If Chris Waller chooses to go into the Melbourne Cup with Via Sistina, I reckon she is a genuine contender. Did you see her run last time out in the Cox Plate? Of course you did, it’s the talk of the town! There are two different paths for Via Sistina at the moment, head to the Melbourne Cup, or head overseas.

Thanks to her mammoth 8L victory in the Cox Plate, Via Sistina gets a ballot exemption for the Melbourne Cup. Via Sistina may have to do things the hard way if she does choose to go to the Melbourne Cup, as she is currently the top weight. Before the Cox Plate, she won the Turnbull Stakes, so she would come into the Melbourne Cup with back-to-back Group One victories.

Another contender, another Chris Waller-trained runner! Buckaroo has been there or thereabouts so far this prep. The Group One winner is currently seven in the ballot order and would come into the Melbourne Cup from the Caulfield Cup, after finishing second by 1.3L, behind Duke De Sessa.

Before his Caulfield Cup run, he finished second in the Turnbull Stakes, first in the Underwood Stakes and first again in the Chelmsford Stakes. So it’s easy to see why he is among the favourites at the time of writing. The $4.50 price we are getting from Bet365 seems a bit skinny, but he is a real contender that’s for sure.

I swear I’m not doing this on purpose, but I’ve found another Chris Waller-trained contender for you. If you cast your mind back a couple of years ago, the bloke was probably going to start the favourite for the Melbourne Cup in 2022, but an injury put a spanner in the works. He has been good without winning so far this prep, which I think works well.

In a handicap race like the Melbourne Cup, it can sometimes work well to fly under the radar a little bit. Francesco Guardi is equal 31st in the ballot order, so the 7YO might not make it into the final field, but if he does, watch out! He is still very unloved in the market, with odds of $67, but we all know that massive longshots can win the Melbourne Cup.

This New Zealand-based gelding has crossed the ditch to fight it out for Australian horse racing riches. The Melbourne Cup would be his third run in Australia this prep and so far he has raced in the Turnbull Stakes and the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Another runner with roughie odds and $51 is currently the going rate for Sharp ‘N’ Smart.

His run in the Turnbull Stakes, which is also at Flemington Racecourse, left a lot to be desired, but the NZ Derby winner has enough class to bounce back at his next attempt at the track. He got a wide barrier in that race, so hopefully, the barrier draw for the Melbourne Cup will be kinder.

Another runner that I think is a genuine contender for the 2024 Melbourne Cup is Okita Soushi. I have liked the look of this stallion for a while and his victory in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last time out only confirmed my suspicions of just how good a horse this guy is. That victory in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup has shortened his odds, now at $17.

Doesn’t have a lot of experience in Group One races, but has been going through the gears nicely and he is now sitting 17th in the ballot order. Before his victory in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, he almost caused a boilover in the Herbert Power Stakes when finishing behind Herman Hesse.

So, we’ve got our contenders, who are the pretenders out of the 35 runners left in the pool for the 2024 Melbourne Cup? After going through all 35 runners, I’ve found a couple that I don’t think have a chance of making a mark in the Melbourne Cup.

The Map

I’m making a bold call here, saying The Map, who is equal first on the ballot is a pretender for the Melbourne Cup. She has a confirmed spot in the race after winning the Andrew Ramsden earlier this year, but I don’t think she is up to this. She is going okay at the moment, but none of her runs have really stood out to me.

This will be her first run at Group One level and we all know just how different that can be. There’s a lot of potential, but I don’t think she’ll reach it this time around. Ran in the Geelong Cup last week, which is usually a good indicator for Melbourne Cup form and she finished middle of the field, 4.9L off the pace.

Circle Of Fire

Another runner that I will be giving a miss in the 2024 Melbourne Cup is Circle Of Fire. The 5YO is currently sixth on the ballot, so it would be very surprising to not see him line up in the Melbourne Cup. For me, it wasn’t just that he finished middle of the pack in the Caulfield Cup last time out, it was the way he crossed the line.

There wasn’t a lot of attacking of the line going on there, so that doesn’t bode well for the Melbourne Cup. He is a Group One winner, but I don’t think he is the same horse we saw when he got that victory in the Sydney Cup. Happy to eat humble pie if needed, but I just don’t think he has a chance.