Saturday Racing Tips - Flemington Racecourse 04/03/23

The Autumn Carnival is well and truly underway off the back of what was an awesome first weekend at Flemington of black type racing. As for this week at Flemington racecourse, there is the lone Group One Australian Guineas and a supporting Group 2, the Blamey Stakes. There’s a total of nearly $3 million prize money available across the card and I think that there is going to be some really exciting prospects and progressive types emerging throughout the card.

(Note: Odds provided by Playup)

Selections:
#3 - Butch Cassidy (BEST BET) - $4.80
#4 - Massira- $3.30
#6 - Tabata Set - $15.00
#7 - Princess Duhallow (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $6.50

BEST BET - #3 - Butch Cassidy
Butch Cassidy is on debut here for the Gai/Bott stable and has had just the two public trials to lead him into this, both of which in Sydney and both of which he was victorious in. The first trail was over the 740m and then he went onto the 1045m when he won again in some style and Gai/Bott are doing almost as well as James Cummings currently with their juveniles.

THE DANGER - #4 - Massira
Massira is a Cummings colt on debut and has to be respected on that alone. He has looked mighty good in his few Jumpouts at this track with the latest being a run where he showed an impressive ability to let down and sprint through for a soft win when asked for effort. He has the gate to run along the rail and reserve himself for a big kick late in the piece.

VALUE BET  - #7 - Princess Duhallow (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY)
Princess Duhallow comes into this second up after resuming a fortnight ago at this track when she showed some great early speed but couldn’t quite find the lead and the run told as she tired late to finish fourth and was sharply dropping off even then, with a bit more distance she would have been last. She maps here to find the lead this time or share it with Massira and back to 1000m is good I think she’s a genuine free-running sprinter.

Selections:
#1 - Jacquinot (BEST BET) - $2.25
#2 - Elliptical - $5.50
#15 - Legarto - $9.50
#8 - Amenable - $12.00

BEST BET - #- Jacquinot - (NEXT BEST)
Absolutely sticking with Jacquinot who’s class edge saw him take out the the Manfred and then went on to a super strong CF Orr where he won on protest and whilst he was lucky to get that regardless of if he won or not he proved he could beat the older horses at WFA and has cemented himself as one of the best runners in the country. He now comes back to his age group, he has the runs on board and this can be the Grand final for him. I love this horse.

THE DANGER - #2 - Elliptical 
I have so so so much time for Elliptical, he resumed here two weeks back in CS Hayes Stakes and couldn’t have won much more impressively as he did after sitting three wide with no cover and still just had it in his tank to run over the field. When she last ran over the mile she just missed in a bob of the heads and also just missed to Sharp ‘N’ Smart over the 2000m so I think she is definitely suited up in trip.

VALUE BET  - #15 - Legarto
Legarto is a star NZ filly that can easily be in the finish after having not raced since Karaka day at Pukekohe in NZ and Ryan Elliot absolutely butchered the ride on her, albeit having raced brilliantly on her prior to then. She now gets Michael Dee on who I think is perfect for a horse of her run style. She knows how to let down late and she gets in light. I expect a bold showing at the turn.

Selections:
#4 - Gentleman Roy (NEXT BEST) - $3.00
#1 - Tuvalu - $4.00
#7 - Uncle Bryn - $8.00
#2 - Smokin’ Romans - $17.00

BEST BET - #4 - Gentleman Roy (NEXT BEST)
Gentleman Roy might just be the most exciting runner in the country for me right now. Team Hayes has had him return to the races in right order and I do think he should have knocked off Jacquinot on protest in the CF Orr. Regardless, the fact that he was in a position to be protesting speaks for itself. He led the whole way there and still had enough in the tank to fend them off. He maps here to sit outside the leader which is a positive for Flemington over this distance and above as long as they don’t go silly up top.

THE DANGER - #1 - Tuvalu
Tuvalu needs to dictate based off of his run in the CF Orr and also seems like he needed the run. He’s going to be much better coming into this with a good second up record and he has either won or placed second in every run he has had at this track/distance. I trust that Jared Fry can find the front from barrier 5 and from there Tuvalu should give these a hard sight.

VALUE BET - #7 - Uncle Bryn
Uncle Bryn gets another chance from me as I know how honest he is. He resumed a couple weeks back over the 1400m here and got too far back there but was still great to the line, working home sharply behind the super impressive Scallopini. He’s fitter now, better for the run and gets out to the mile. He appeals here at odds and I think he is a horse with real talent.

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Mark Zahra gets a really solid booking of rides for Freedman, the Snowdens and Maher and Eustace amongst others and he knows this track well and knows group racing well to. He’s already been performing off the back of last week’s Black type meeting and I think he will pick up at least a win in his rides tomorrow. I have outlined them below:

R1 - #1 - Mach Ten - $6.00
R5 - #4 - Munhamek - $4.80
R6 - #17 - Cythera - $11.00
R7 - #12 - Holymanz - $21.00
R8 - #4 - Gentleman Roy - $3.20
R9 - #5 - She’s All Class - $15.00

It’s gonna be pretty tricky at Flemington tomorrow but I think for a lot of the mid distance races, which are the ones I am mostly tipping in, being up near the speed and with a bit of cover is the spot to be and that I am also putting emphasis on the jockey / stable combination and where the horses are in their prep. Follow me below for a fun bet to track over race day.

R1 - #7 - Princess Duhallow  - PLC$1.90
R7 - #1 - Jacquinot - WIN$2.25
R8 - #4 - Gentleman Roy - PLC $3.00

Total Odds = $6.19
$50 Stake = $309.93 Return!

Odds provided by PlayUp, sign up for a new account here to get started.

Our experts have curated a bet type information page which delves into all the different types of exotics betting, check it out for clarification on the different types of exotics betting or just to brush up on your knowledge.

Flemington Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R8)
1st: 1, 4
2nd: 1, 4, 7
3rd: 1, 4, 6, 7, 13

$50 stake = 417% flexi

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