Saturday Racing Tips - Flemington Racecourse 04/11/23

It’s Victoria Derby day and we have a massive card set for racing at Flemington with three group 1 races on the card and a bunch of other listed support races on the card and I am very excited for this day as the Group 1 races season approaches it’s peak. I have run through the card and picked out my best bets tips for all of the three group 1 races so follow me below as I run through a massive card at Flemington!

(Note: Odds provided by Playup)

Selections:
#1 - Shinzo (NEXT BEST) - $6.00
#2 - Cylinder - $4.60
#5 - King's Gambit - $8.50
#18 - Stretan Angel - $9.50

BEST BET - #1 - Shinzo (NEXT BEST)
I think that Shinzo is going to go massive here. He comes off the back of a first up run in the Golden Rose where he pulled up lame and then went to the Everest where he got no luck in the run but still ran on well behind Think About It. It’s tough to rate a horse purely based on their yard work but the jumpout he produced down the Flemington straight here last week was absolutely electric and I think he’s going to stamp himself as the best three-year old in town here.

THE DANGER - #2 - Cylinder
Cylinder is going to be one of the toughest contenders here for the Godolphin stable. He got stuck wide with no cover in the Golden Rose and still nearly claimed that race before just being overrun late by Militarize in what was one of the more impressive runs I have seen this season. He then ran a very good fifth in The Everest when not getting the best of luck late in the piece. He’s hard fit, comes back to a 3YO contest and rates very highly here.

VALUE BET  - #5 - King's Gambit
King’s Gambit did a bit wrong on the turn when he resumed in the Poseidon Stakes before taking a break and coming back to racing last time out in the Group 2 Roman Consul Stakes where he belted them in impressive fashion. He now comes back to Flemington for just his second run here off the back of that Poseidon Stakes run and should have his manners sharpened up for this. He has the talent to take it out.

Selections:
#1 - Apulia (BEST BET) - $4.00
#4 - Riff Rocket - $2.25
#8 - Gates - $13.00
#2 - Verdad - $9.00

BEST BET - #1 - Apulia (BEST BET)
Feature race of the day here and whilst there is a smart favourite in this race I think that Apulia has what it takes to roll him on the back up here. He comes out of The Vase last Saturday at The Valley where he drew clear of Verdad late for a very strong win. I think he still has upside coming out of that and is racing like 2500m will suit. I think if he finds more here he takes this out.

THE DANGER - #4 - Riff Rocket
It’s hard to knock Riff Rocket after the way that he won in the Super Impose before stepping out in the Caulfield Classic where he was completely against the pattern / shape of the race and was still able to come on strongly enough into second place. This is the grand finale he has been set up for and Chris Waller will undoubtedly have him ready to go for this 2500m assignment.

VALUE BET  - #8 - Gates
Gates is a lightly raced horse for Peter Moody and I think he is an honest competitor in this field. He comes here third up and hard fit off the back of two solid runs. Last time out he ran in the Caulfield Classic where he was completely against the shape and pattern of the race and still made heaps of late ground from the rear of the field in a very impressive effort. I am keen to see how he steps out here now.

Selections:
#4 - Atishu - $5.00
#3 - Hope In Your Heart - $6.50
#2 - Princess Grace (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $7.10
#1 - Alcohol Free - $6.10

BEST BET - #4 - Atishu 
Atishu is a smart horse who has the Sydney form and I think that will stand up here. She comes out of the King Charles at Randwick where she was deep in the run and out wide so can be forgiven / respected for what she was able to produce despite that. All her runs before then were very impressive, she draws for a lot cushier of a run here and I think that she likely goes very well here. 

THE DANGER - #3 - Hope In Your Heart
Hope In Your Heart is flying for Karry Parker and I think this is her time to clock the group 1 races win. She comes out of the King Charles a few weeks ago where she was also against the shape of the race but she still just kept her head down and powered home in defeat. She now comes back to her own sex, gets more tempo on which is much more suitable and is one of the leading contenders here.

VALUE BET - #2 - Princess Grace (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY)  
Princess Grace definitely brings the best formlines to this race and I think has been revved up again to win here for Chris Waller. His runner up placings to kick the campaign off this time in have been to Fangirl and Mr Brightside before racing last time out back to 1400m from the mile when placing second to Life Lessons. She now comes into this back out to the mile which is very positive and if Spencer can overcome the tricky gate they win this.

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Jye McNeil is an accomplished jockey, having won several black type races, including the prestigious 2020 Melbourne Cup aboard Twilight Payment. He has also received the Victoria Racing Club's Champion Jockey Award in two consecutive seasons (2019/20 and 2020/21), underscoring his reputation as one of Victoria's finest jockeys. He is known to perform exceptionally well on major race days, and he has secured a significant number of rides for this weekend's racing at Flemington Park Lakeside, I have outlined them all below:

R1 - #2 - El Patroness - $2.45
R3 - #6 - Manhattan Thunder - $12.00
R5 - #4 - Toronto Terrier - $6.10
R6 - #3 - Stormbolt - $4.80
R7 - #5 - Arizona Activist - $18.00
R8 - #3 - So Si Bon - $4.65
R9 - #13 - Tonneofgrit - $18.00

One of the most significant considerations in picking up multiple winners is the track bias, which favors horses that don’t get too far back in the run at Flemington Racecourse. As a result, horses drawn on the inside have a better chance of performing well compared to those drawn towards the outside. I have factored in this aspect when making my multi bets, taking into account the horses' respective preps and their drawn barrier positions. Follow below for a multi to track over race day!

Flemington R7 - #1 - Apulia -  PLC  $2.15
Flemington R6 - #1 - Shinzo - PLC $1.60
Flemington R8 - #2 - Princess Grace - PLC $2.40

Total Odds = $8.00
$50 Stake = $400.00 Return!

Odds provided by PlayUp, sign up for a new account here to get started.

Our experts have curated a bet type information page which delves into all the different types of exotics betting, check it out for clarification on the different types of exotics betting or just to brush up on your knowledge.

Flemington Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R7)

1st: 1, 2, 4, 8
2nd: 1, 2, 4, 8
3rd: 1, 2, 4, 8

$50 stake = 208% flexi

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