Saturday Racing Tips - Flemington Racecourse 05/08/23

Spring racing is well and truely about to kick off and down south we see an awesome high level ten race card at Flemington that is highlighted by the Aurie's Star Hcp, a Group three race over the 1200m for a share of $200k prize money and I am very keen to see how the top Victorian and outer state stables bring back some of their premier runners in the country as well as a few who have been working towards this calibre of racing. I have picked out some betting spots on the card that I am particularly keen on so follow me below as I run through the day’s racing at Flemington.

(Note: Odds provided by Playup)

Selections:
#8 - River Noire (NEXT BEST) - $2.90
#10 - Smile And Wave - $8.00
#6 - Jean Valjean - $5.50
#9 - Niccolite - $11.00

BEST BET - #8 - River Noire (NEXT BEST)
River Noire rates a fair bit in front of these for Peter Moody and races very well with fresh legs and I am quite keen on her prospects here when resuming. She hasn’t been seen at the races for nearly eight months when racing at The Valley in just her third career start where she found plenty from back in the race to make it two wins in three runs. Her jumpout work to lead her back into this has been excellent and she has been astutely placed in a winnable race first up here.

THE DANGER - #10 - Smile And Wave 
Smile and Wave is having just his fifth career outing here and second run this prep for the Freedman’s and I think that he was too bad to be true when resuming at Caulfield a couple weeks back where he was on the wrong part of the track but still had his chance where he really didn’t do much. I think that the stable would have taken a look at him after then and will have him much sharper for this, he’s a second up winner in the past and I think he can hit back hard here.

VALUE BET  - #9 - Niccolite 
Niccolite’s formlines read very well for this assignment and I think that the Grahame Begg product will be competitive here. She ran two back at Caulfield where she finished strongly behind Vivianne before racing last time out at Sandown Hillside where she came on so strongly from far too deep in the run behind Neverstandingstill. I think she can be ridden closer to the speed this time round with the fitness she has and from there should have plenty for them in the straight.

Selections:
#6 - Warlords (BEST BET) - $4.20
#8 - Robrick - $7.00
#2 - Flying Concello - $10.00
#5 - Orion The Hunter - $8.00

BEST BET - #6 - Warlords (BEST BET)
I am very keen on the Busuttin and Young trained Warlords and think this is his chance to prove how genuine he is having just his second career start here but I think he is one of the better betting spots on the program. He debuted at Sale a few weeks back where he didn’t beat an awful lot but the way in which he did it and the splits he clocked were far too impressive to ignore. He now goes out 200m in trip which looks the perfect distance based on that debut and has more upside than anything in this field and I am tempted to say he just wins this.

THE DANGER - #8 - Robrick 
The Price and Kent stable send forth Robrick for this assignment who can hit back hard here off the back of just the two career starts. Her debut came at Moe in the Heavy where she wasn’t totally suited on the ground but her class saw her finish a close third behind a progressive horse in Mollynickers before racing last time out at Caulfield where she was ridden too hot on the speed and faded late. She should be hard fit now, the blinkers go on to sharpen her up and run her own race and I think that with more upside to come she has to be a big chance here.

VALUE BET  - #2 - Flying Concello
I can’t knock Flying Concello based on her three career starts and I think that she has to be respected again, albeit stepping up in competition here. She’s put two wins together in her past two runs with a soft maiden kill at Bendigo over the 1000m two runs back and then stepping out to a Saturday race at Sandown over the 1300m where she stalked the speed and then powered over them to get the money in the last 50m. She will still have plenty more to offer here and looks well suited stepping out another 100m in trip. Sneaky chance.

Selections:
#4 - It’sourtime- $3.60
#11 - Cause For Concern - $4.20
#8 - Dance To Dubai (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $15.00
#5 - Zethus - $12.00

BEST BET - #Zethus 
I am such a big fan of Danny O’Brien’s It’sourtime and he gets onto the track he loves the most, being the Flemington straight. His last run came a fortnight ago in the Bletchingly Stakes where he was just off the speed on the wrong part of the course and found the line with real purpose, clocking some of the best late splits of the whole meeting, to motor home into third when only beaten a length by Intigrating. He’s hard fit now, has multiple wins and close placings at this track / trip and I think he has an edge on most of these.

THE DANGER - #11 - Cause For Concern 
Cause for Concern has to be respected here for the Mathrick stable and loves this course. He’s put together three runs in his past four outtings and has looked very sharp in each. The most recent one came at the 1400m here where he raced keenly throughout the run but started a big run at the 300m, took over at the 150m and was never in doubt from there. I think that back 200m is a bit of a query now but he has exceptional form at the track and only needs to hold form to be competitive here.

VALUE BET - #8 - Dance To Dubai (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) 
Tread cautiously here as I might have too much time for this horse but Dance to Dubai is a proven performer for Peter Moody and I think that she gets another honest chance here to go one better. Her run two back here saw her against the shape of the race before racing last time out in Benchmark grade here where she was ridden a bit hotter and dominantly took that race out. If the tactics are the same for this assignment I think she will have her chance.

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Jye McNeil is an accomplished jockey, having won several black type races, including the prestigious 2020 Melbourne Cup aboard Twilight Payment. He has also received the Victoria Racing Club's Champion Jockey Award in two consecutive seasons (2019/20 and 2020/21), underscoring his reputation as one of Victoria's finest jockeys. He is known to perform exceptionally well on major race days, and he has secured a significant number of rides for this weekend's racing at Flemington Park Lakeside, I have outlined them all below:

R1 - #2 - El Patroness - $2.45
R3 - #6 - Manhattan Thunder - $12.00
R5 - #4 - Toronto Terrier  - $6.10
R6 - #3 - Stormbolt - $4.80
R7 - #5 - Arizona Activist - $18.00
R8 - #3 - So Si Bon - $4.65
R9 - #13 - Tonneofgrit - $18.00

One of the most significant considerations in picking up multiple winners is the track bias, which favors horses that don’t get too far back in the run at Flemington Racecourse. As a result, horses drawn on the inside have a better chance of performing well compared to those drawn towards the outside. I have factored in this aspect when making my multi bets, taking into account the horses' respective preps and their drawn barrier positions. Follow below for a multi to track over race day!

R3 - #6 - Warlords - PLC $1.80
R1 - #8 - River Noire - PLC $1.45
R7 - #8 - River Noire - PLC $3.70

Total Odds = $9.60
$50 Stake = $480.00 Return!

Odds provided by PlayUp, sign up for a new account here to get started.

Our experts have curated a bet type information page which delves into all the different types of exotics betting, check it out for clarification on the different types of exotics betting or just to brush up on your knowledge.

Flemington Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R3)

1st: 2, 5, 6, 8
2nd: 2, 5, 6, 8
3rd: 2, 5, 6, 8

$50 stake = 208% flexi

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