Saturday Racing Tips - Moonee Valley Racecourse 18/03/23

Moonee Valley racing continues for All Star Mile day and wow it looks like it’s going to be an exciting weekend of racing in Victoria. The card is stacked with the feature race of the day, the All Star Mile being a 1600m race for a share of 5 million dollars prize money that is supported by the subsequent group three Typhoon Tracy Stakes and the Group two Alister Clark Stakes. The rail is in true position, weather forecast is fine and the track is rated a good 4.

(Note: Odds provided by Playup)

Selections:
#5 - Toronto Terrier  - $3.10
#2 - Russian Dancer - $3.90
#1 - Bel Air - $2.50
#3 - American Liaison (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY)  - $8.00

BEST BET - #5 - Toronto Terrier
Toronto Terrier should not be treated lightly here even though he is jumping straight out of maiden grade into this. The maiden win was brutal at Pakenham over the 1200m where he let down with a serious turn of foot to smash the field and run a great time. The rise in trip looks natural and the upside that he has outweighs the majority of this field. I think he maps well enough to run them over on the straight again this time.

THE DANGER - #2 - Russian Dancer 
The query with Russian Dancer is stepping onto the tricky track that is MV. He hasn’t done anything wrong thus far but his runs have been almost solely at Pakenham. In saying that, he’s won his past two races at the Mile at that track and each win he has laid in hard when asked for it to get the wins on the board. This is clearly his distance range and with Spain on they can take this out.

VALUE BET  - #3 - American Liaison (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY)
American Liaison has been solid this campaign after having a bunch of placings to kick of his prep before going to the 1450m at Kilmore where he lead throughout and was dominant to the line, showing a nice change of gears there to let down even when it may not have been needed. He has been bred for the mile and looks to have a very smart running style. He’s one to keep your eyes on and see what the market does for sure.

Selections:
#2 - Alligator Blood (BEST BET) - $2.70
#1 - I’m Thunderstruck - $6.50
#9 - The Inevitable - $23.00
#13 - Nugget - $19.00

BEST BET - #2 - Alligator Blood  - (NEXT BEST)
We were on him last time out when resuming in the Futurity Stakes and I have no intention of jumping off him now. He absolutely trucked along in the run there before Shinn asked for him to let down, and when he did, he put them away seemingly with ease. Natural improvement should carry him marvelously into this and I don’t have too much more to say. Good luck beating him.

THE DANGER - #1 - I’m Thunderstruck
Still unsure how genuine I’m Thunderstruck really is. However, he gets two big positives here in both his likeness for this track and that he maps to sit off a very hot tempo which should play into his hand. I think he needs the track a bit famp so if you’re money is looking towards him you better hope that we get a touch of rain overnight and that can be the factor that carries him over the top of the aforementioned AB this time out.

VALUE BET  - #9 - The Inevitable 
The Scott Brunton trained The Inevitable might just be a generational talent, or it might just be the case of an exceptional Tasmanian horse beating off other Tasmanian horses. Either way, his times suggest the former. He is shooting for his seventh consecutive win coming into this after thrashing everything they put in front of him at Launceston and Hobart since November last year and he maps very similarly to I’m Thunderstruck for this, he should settle in a nice spot off the speed and be running home hard late.

Selections:
#1 - Dunkel (NEXT BEST) - $6.00
#3 - Amenable - $3.00
#2 - Bank Maur  - $5.50
#6 - Watadeel  - $21.00

BEST BET - #1 - Dunkel (NEXT BEST)
Dunkel is a star three-year-old who very well could be progressing towards the Cups later in the year. He is so talented and even though he makes heaps of mistakes in running he just can’t not win at the moment. In his two run Tasmania prep he took out both the Guineas and the Tassie Derby and prior to then he won here in the Spring and will appreciate that run coming into this. He’s definitely the best horse in this race and I will have to have something on him.

THE DANGER - #3 - Amenable 
Amenable is untested at this distance range but looks as though he was always meant for the 2000m onwards. He comes into this off the back of a run in the Australian Guineas and he wasn’t poor in defeat at all there, only being beaten just over a length by the in form star filly Legarto. He maps to have a beautiful run with cover in transit near the speed in a race without too hot a tempo and this race isn’t overly strong so it’s more a question of whether this trip is suitable for him or not.

VALUE BET - #6 - Watadeel
Watadeels latest run was over the Mile at this track in a fairly strong race. He was right up top there, chasing hard all run and was pretty good when second to Euro Dandy who had the run of the race there and claimed them that day. He draws a tricky gate here but has the talent and runs on board as well the experience here and the rise in trip should mitigate that a bit. They’ve specked him at great odds and I think he would be a good place bet.

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My love for Blake Shinn is not dying just yet, the inform top jockey looks to get a nice booking of rides at Moonee Valley on saturday along with him riding some of my top bets I have outlined all of his rides for the day:

R1 - #2 - Scissor Step - $4.00
R3 - #5 - Summerbeel - $2.45
R4 - #5 - Toronto Terrier - $3.10
R7 - #2 - Alligator Blood - $2.70
R8 - #3 - Wee Nessy - $15.00
R9 - #5 - Japanese Emperor - $6.00

There is a strong track Bias at the Valley in the distance ranges that I have tipped races in, skewed towards those that are close to the rail and those that have experience at this track. I also decided to follow horses based off which jockey is aboard seeing as some are track specialists. There is also a major advantage to horses who are trained at this track. Follow my multi below for a good value bet to track over race day.

R4 - #3 - American Liaison - PLC $2.05
R7 - #2 - Alligator Blood - PLC $1.45
R9 - #1 - Dunkel - PLC $2.10

Total Odds = $6.24
$50 Stake = $312.11 Return!

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Moonee Valley Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R9)
1st: 1, 3
2nd: 1, 2, 3, 6
3rd: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6

$50 stake = 278% flexi

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