Selections:
#4 - Ferago (NEXT BEST) - $6.00
#3 - Claidheamh Mor - $7.50
#2 - Thorin - $12.00
#1 - Strawberry Rock - $5.00
BEST BET - #4 - Ferago (NEXT BEST)
This is a tricky distance range to nail but I think that Fergao’s setup looks too similar to last year to ignore, as he won this race last year. He’s a smart horse for Pat Ryan Jr who ran third in the Vobis Gold Stayers and then took this out last year. This time he ran a week ago when getting crowded out in the run and never really given the chance to come on. Craig Will retains the ride, he draws a much softer gate now and will be afforded more time and he gets the ground that he likes, with his toe in it a bit. I think that he only runs well.
THE DANGER - #3 - Claidheamh Mor
Hard to get away from Claidheamh Mor who has only been putting in big runs for the Rielly camp. We had him in our Saturday Tips two runs back in the Heavy at Sandown Lakeside over the 2100m where he just kept improving from deep in the run and wore the frontrunners down to get the money. He then backed that effort up with another strong run at the track and trip where he was unlucky to miss in a driving go, finishing third. He looks astutely placed for the step out in distance now and has a touch of class about him.
VALUE BET - #2 - Thorin
Thorin is taking a decent step up in competition but comes into this very well weighted with the claim from Bull and has been putting in performances that are good enough to shape up here. Last time out, he raced three weeks ago over the 2000m at Caulfield where he found the front in the run and took over at the 600m to power away and score by three lengths. The part I liked was how strong he was through the line, suggestive of the step up in distance being very well suited to him and I think that he can speck at odds here.