Saturday Racing Tips - Rosehill Racecourse 09/09/23

Racing returns to Rosehill for another action packed Saturday as the Group 1 racing season is in full swing and we have a monster ten race card on the program with four listed races: three group twos and a group three and the feature of the day is the James Squire Run To The Rose, a 1200m Open sprint for a share of $300k prize money. It looks like it’s going to be an awesome card so follow me below as I outline my best betting spots of the day at Rosehill!

(Note: Odds provided by Playup)

Selections:
#1 - Too Much Caviar - $2.00
#5 - Yukon - $9.00
#4 - Olympic Gaze (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $17.00
#7 - Vincenzo 

BEST BET - #1 - Too Much Caviar
I can’t believe I am kicking my betting day off with a bet in a 2400m not listed staying race but I think that Too Much Caviar looks like a very good bet here and maps to be a ways out in front and I find it hard to see them catching him. He was quite a few weeks between runs when he raced here a fortnight ago over the 2000m and had a strong kick in the straight after not the easiest of runs up on the speed and looked the winner but was just claimed late by a smart Wineglass bay. More intent now and ready for the trip, I think he wins this.

THE DANGER - #5 - Yukon
Yukon is a horse who I have plenty of time for and admittedly probably too much time for. I am willing to give him another shot here as he does generally take some time to get going and now steps up to this race fourth up and ready to fire. His three runs back have seen him working towards a win before stepping out last time to that aforementioned race that Too Much Caviar was in where he worked home nicely from deep in the field behind Wineglass Bay. He hasn’t run at this distance before but I do think he looks well placed for the step out in trip now.

VALUE BET  - #4 - Olympic Gaze (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) 
Olympic Gaze is a tricky horse to figure out but when he puts it all together he has what it takes to shape up here. He’s been clocking splits that put him as the fastest average last 600m horse in this race and off the back of his win at Canterbury last time out I think he shapes up well here. This race isn’t overly strong, he draws a decent gate and the 2400m is fine for him based on his previous efforts. Go close.

Selections:
#2 - Marques (NEXT BEST) - $4.20
#9 - Howgoodareyou - $2.40
#7 - Hollywood Hero - $12.00
#8 - Holstein - $8.00

BEST BET - #2 - Marquess (NEXT BEST) 
There’s no real reason to doubt the favourite in this race but I do just have this Godolphin feeling that James Cummings’ Marquess is going to complete the hat trick here. He’s two from two since resuming from a spell, after getting a peach of a ride from Jmac in his resumption run he stepped out over the 1500m at Rosehill last time out and showed even more improvement in another big win. I imagine Godolphin has bigger things in mind so Marquess will need his rating to keep going up and this looks like a good opportunity for that.

THE DANGER - #9 - Howgoodareyou
Howgoodareyou has no reason to be doubted in this field for the flying Gai / Bott stable and whilst he has only had four career starts to date he has already scored in three of them and comes into this also looking to complete the hat trick after leading and controlling a 1500m race here two weeks ago she still had plenty to fend the challengers off and won by a good space. She jumps up in competition here but looks ready to win again.

VALUE BET  - #7 - Hollywood Hero 
Hollywood Hero has been up for awhile but looks like he is holding form very well and has done good work at this track previously and now looks ready for the step up in trip. He’s clocked a win and a bunch of close placings in a few runs this prep but last time out He overcame a tough wide run over the mile at Warwick Farm to finish second where the winner had the gun run. He’s been turned around a bit quicker for this, gets the booking of Collett and they get in light, sure to run well again.

Selections:
#2 - Cylinder (BEST BET) - $2.10
#3 - Libertad - $4.60
#1 - Militarize - $17.00
#4 - Don Corleone - $8.00

BEST BET - #2 - Cylinder (BEST BET)
Feature race of the day and I think Godolphin’s Cylinder looks very well placed to win this after resuming in The Vain at Caulfield where he scored very well first up. That win is far better than it reads when you look at the splits he clocked, making it one of the fastest Vain wins ever and the cat is out the bag in terms of his quality, we all know he’s class. I think he could dominate them here and we will see him afterwards in the Golden Rose. Top top chance, just a pity the market is all over it.

THE DANGER - #3 - Libertad 
Libertad. The horse that I am really backing to make this a race and probably my favourite underdog in the country. We had him in our Saturday Racing Tips two weeks ago when he resumed off of a 21 week spell and attempted to keep the undefeated record afloat for Neasham and he duly saluted. It was a belter win in the San Domenico Stakes (G3) that we saw take place that day where he got a nice two wide trail into the race before shifting out wider and bursting through the field for a solid win and in a bit of time as well. He is a very nice horse, the stable is super high on him and you would think he will still have plenty more to offer here second up. 

VALUE BET - #1 - Militarize 
Militarize always seems to strike when I least expect it so I am keen to not count him out this time. He really found his feet during the end of Summer / Autumn when Randwick went through a couple months of wet tracks and he was right there to take out the Sires and Champagne stakes in dominant fashion both times. I normally wouldn’t be too keen on him at the 1200m first up but he has been worked along with a few trials for his return and also stepped out for an exhibition gallop last weekend so there seems to be a fair bit of intent and it would be foolish to treat any of Waller’s horses lightly at this track.

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Avdulla has found great form this year with a near 50% place rate and near 20% strike rate. He has been super consistent in NSW and that has been recognised to a large extent by the bookings that he has been getting. He gets a top selection of rides for some prominent stables such as James Cummings and Chris Waller and I think he is a top shot to pick up at least one win on Saturday at Rosehill.

R2 - #2 - Cylinder - $7.50
R5 - #12 - Kokoro - $7.00
R6 - #6 - Roots - $7.50
R8 - #5 - Zou Tiger - $9.50
R9 - #3 - Welwal - $13.00

Whilst it is scary to tip in some of the bigger field races I think that with it being early in the season and a lot of runners being on resumption that there are some clear top picks in each field and as such I have combined my best runners of the day into a place multi. Whilst it might not be the same level of value we generally get I think that it is a worthwhile bet and has a good chance of coming in

Rosehill R8 - #2 - Cylinder - PLC $1.20
Rosehill R5 - #2 - Marques - PLC $1.65
Rosehill R3 - #4 - Olympic Gaze - PLC $3.10 

Total Odds = $6.24
$50 Stake = $312.01 Return!

Odds provided by PlayUp, sign up for a new account here to get started.

Our experts have curated a bet type information page which delves into all the different types of exotics betting, check it out for clarification on the different types of exotics betting or just to brush up on your knowledge.

Rosehill Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R8)
1st: 1, 2, 3, 4
2nd: 1, 4, 6, 10
3rd: 1, 4, 6, 10

$50 stake = 208% flexi

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