Saturday Racing Tips - Sportsbet-Ballarat Racecourse 09/12/23

Racing comes back to Ballarat this Saturday for Ballarat Cup Day and we have ten high level races on the card for a total prize of the day of $1.8 million and I am keen to outline my best three betting spots of the card as we obviously go through the listed Sportsbet Ballarat Cup in race eight and also two other races so follow me below!

(Note: Odds provided by Playup)

Selections:
#8 - Excelleration (BEST BET) - $4.40
#6 - Independent Road - $6.50
#4 - Harmysian - $10.00
#11 - Kettle Hill - $6.50

BEST BET - #8 - Excelleration (BEST BET)
Excelleration has to be a good bet here after the time he clocked at Flemington splits wise in the run when resuming. He got no luck there and it shows in certain splits but the parts of the race where he had clear air, he was flying and the clock doesn't lie. He’s jumped out very well for this, maps well and should be super strong at this trip. 

THE DANGER - #6 - Independent Road
Hard to ignore Independent Road based on the way he returned to racing last time out for the Hayes boys. He came off of a 20 week spell in the Ballan Cup and just continued to grind the leaders down the whole way through the run to eventually get the money in the dying meters of the race. That was impressive given he was racing over the 1500m first up and now should be improving into this second up.

VALUE BET  - #4 - Harmysian
Harmysian is a smart horse who has had three runs over the 2000m and now that the track should have a bit of juice in it he really gets his chance to win. He last ran well in the Country Cup where he was just held up at a crucial stage for the run but still came on so strongly and has been running well prior. I think he’s a winning chance here.

Selections:
#8 - A Little Deep (NEXT BEST) - $2.50
#3 - Baroque Road - $9.00
#13 - Foujita San - $17.00
#4 - Zou Sensation - $16.00

BEST BET - #8 - A Little Deep (NEXT BEST)
I think this race is not an afterthought for A Little Deep and it’s been on the radar since the planned to have her come back to race. She hasn’t raced since the end of October on Moe Cup day where she belted a decent field over the 1000m. She’s very good with fresh legs however and the stable doesn’t screw around, they’ve had her jumpout a bunch for the return and she looks awesome.

THE DANGER - #3 - Baroque Road
Baroque Road has the class to take this out first up for Maher and Eustace and comes back here to race since the end of August were he smashed a good field at Sandown before going away for the spell. He has jumped out very well for his return and he generally runs well fresh. Can take this out.

VALUE BET  - #4 - Zou Sensation
Zou Sensation resumed two weeks ago at Cranbourne in a Friday night race where he looked to have his moment to come on and he didn’t do much with it but wasn’t disgraced when able to finish third. He now comes into this much fitter and ready to win, can feature at odds.

Selections:
#8 - Foxy Cleopatra - $5.00
#11 - Red Sun Sensation - $6.00
#4 - Ain'tnodeeldun - $7.00
#2 - Just Folk (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $7.50

BEST BET - #8 - Foxy Cleopatra 
Foxy Cleopatra has got to be the leading contender in this race as I think getting out to this trip and perhaps even this exact race have been the target. She raced in the Cranbourne Cup a fortnight ago when just wanting to lay in in the straight which cost her the race but did look strong prior to doing that and still wasn’t disgraced by the way she ran there. She’s rock hard fit now, gets out to her ideal distance and will surely run well here.

THE DANGER - #11 - Red Sun Sensation
Red Sun Sensation is a horse that really caught my eye when he last stepped out for Peter Moody three weeks ago at Caulfield in the Country Cups Final where he got held up but once he got clear air he was absolutely flying to the line in a very sharp effort behind the awesome winner Claideamh Mor. He’s been a model of consistency, not being out of the placings in his last four runs and strikes a winnable contest now.

VALUE BET - #2 - Just Folk (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY)
Just Folk has been turned around quickly for this assignment but I think he is as good of a chance as any here, He stepped out for the Bedggood stable in the 1800m G3 race last week at Caulfield as a long priced favourite but saluted very very well when taking on a solid amount of weight and showing so much fight to hold on when he had every reason to lose. Well placed here to do the double from a good gate and better at the weights.

Plan on betting on the races this Saturday? Betting online is surprisingly simple these days, and our Best Bookmakers area is the simplest way to discover the best online betting sites to follow our expert’s tips.

Playup is my top selection for Racing this week as they are providing some of the best overall fixed odds amongst the Australian bookies at the moment for racing. They are also very generous, often offering a number of racing promotions such as money back in bonus bets for 2nd and 3rd for a selected runner in a race of your choosing. They cover all Australian thoroughbred racing and are quite comprehensive in their international racing markets.

Join us on Saturday, Wednesday and Friday Racing tips, with articles throughout the week for the greatest free horse racing tips provided by our experts. Each week, our team’s racing tips highlight the most noteworthy race days and tracks, as well as expert analysis and best bets for selected races.

Additionally, we notify you of any significant scratchings affecting the races as well as any details about the track, notable jockeys to follow, or other factors that we feel are good to know. We will also cover any bonus bet or other promotions that are running that day and even have recommendations for other bets like multi tips, and our daily quaddie.
 
For a more in-depth explanation of horse racing bet types and tips for placing, visit our tips and information page.

John Allen is one of the most consistent going around and is a top chance to take out the tab jockey challenge and the market reflects that on his rides. He has a near 50% place rate this season and a 16% win rate, keep in mind he jockeys more frequently than most. I have outlined all his rides below:

R2 - #4 - Non Grata - $8.00
R3 - #18 - Salsaset - $101
R4 - #2 - Brung King - $4.80
R7 - #2 - Beefheaters - $5.50

Tomorrow's Sportsbet-Ballarat races will be important to have big finishing ability for the sprints, that’s how the bias plays at the track. Being near the front, drawing inside of barrier ~10 is the optimal place for these races. I'm giving weight to proven jockey/stable combinations. Follow me below for an enjoyable bet to track throughout the race day!

Sportsbet-Ballarat R5 - #8 - Excelleration - PLC $1.90
Sportsbet-Ballarat R7 - #8 - A Little Deep - PLC $1.45
Sportsbet-Ballarat R8 - #2 - Just Folk - PLC $2.50

Total Odds = $7.00
$50 Stake = $350.00 Return!

Odds provided by PlayUp, sign up for a new account here to get started.

Our experts have curated a bet type information page which delves into all the different types of exotics betting, check it out for clarification on the different types of exotics betting or just to brush up on your knowledge.

Sportsbet-Ballarat Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R5)
1st: 4, 6, 8, 11
2nd: 4, 6, 8, 11
3rd: 4, 6, 8, 11

$50 stake = 207% flexi

Promotions are traditionally the primary way for punters to create an edge over the bookies, as they can save your cash when your runner fails to win, in the instance of Unibet they often offer 2nd and 3rd money back in bonus bets for a selection of races on the midweek and Provincial racing days. Coupled with their generous odds I have to put them as the top bookie promotion wise at the moment for Australian racing. 

If you are looking for the best promotions this week for Wednesday's racing I wouldn’t look past Unibet, often they offer odds boosts in addition to the money back promotions. Don’t forget to check your account as well for personal offers. 

Promotions often change so make sure you sign up at unibet.com.au to see what promotions are applicable to you and you may even be surprised to find some promotions that weren’t mentioned here!