Selections:
#5 - Upwoods (BEST BET) - $1.90
#4 - Lavish Thinker - $3.30
#3 - Hollandia - $8.50
#7 - Gallium - $11.00
BEST BET - #5 - Upwoods (BEST BET)
Upwoods looks like a very good thing on paper. The price and Kent trained three year old is having his second start since changing camps and was very good when resuming / debuting for the stable. He missed the jump and settled deep but kept working through the run to find the leaders at the 1000m mark and just kept working to come second there. He was the only on pacer to survive into the finish then at the Mile and looks very suited now going out in trip, will be fitter and better for the experience. I suspect he will be a lot shorter when they jump.
THE DANGER - #4 - Lavish Thinker
The progressive P Stokes three year old Lavish Thinker has been put forward for this race under Zac Spain and must be respected with an inform jockey and flying stable. He made his return to the races after a long 17 week spell two weeks back at Geelong and just battled there in an even effort. He should be better for the run second up now, is fitter and gets a jockey upgrade, I like his chances.
VALUE BET - #3 - Hollandia
Hollandia looks like she will go on to do good things for the Mick Moroney camp after making her debut at the races on the Synthetic at Pakenham and was far from disgraced there. She set wide and deep from the wide gate before putting in a big run to start closing the gap inside the last 100m but was just too far away then to really get into the race. Regardless, it was a strong debut and she will be sure to improve into this now, small field and not overly deep race, she will have her chance.