Selections:
#8 - Starlea (NEXT BEST) - $5.00
#3 - Miss Balvenie - $5.00
#1 - Cotel (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $7.50
#5 - Viviane - $8.50
BEST BET - #8 - Starlea - (NEXT BEST)
Starlea looks like the straight bat option and I struggle to see a reason not to speck her at ~$5.00. The Mick Ellerton runner resumed off of a 19 week spell at Cranbourne in the mud just shy of three weeks ago where he was ever so impressive, racing just off the speed three wide with no cover where he just continued to wear them down and got there late for a gutsy win. He still has big upside to come second up now, is proven secon up (4: 1-2-1) and I see him only running well here.
THE DANGER - #3 - Miss Balvenie
Miss Balvenie should run well here if we see enough sting out of the ground. He’s got an impressive 34% strike rate on soft tracks and looks to make sharp improvements second up now. He resumed at this track last week as favourite and jumped awkwardly, working to recover through the run and I think that effort just told late when he whacked away in the straight but didn’t have too much for them. He should get a much softer run now and Shinn jumps on for the ride which is a big upgrade. Go close.
VALUE BET - #1 - Cotel
Cotel might want one more but as his best he has lengths on these. The Peter Moody runner resumed off an 18 week spell off the back of a Successful summer prep at this track three weeks ago and jumped awkwardly, setting deep there and improving throughout the run but I liked the way he found the line late in the piece when he was seemingly just getting warm. He sticks at the distance which is a slight query as he is generally looking for longer than this but my guess is they try get him warm just before the turn and have him thump home from there.