Epsom Handicap Preview and Tips 05/10/24

Racing fans rejoice, it’s a mammoth day of racing this Saturday, the first Saturday with multiple Group One races for the Spring. There are four Group Ones in total, so make sure you clear your schedule because it’s going to be a full day of action.

At Randwick Racecourse, there are three Group One races, including; the Epsom Handicap, the Flight Stakes and The Metropolitan. If that wasn’t enough for you, we also have one Group One in Melbourne, at Flemington Racecourse, which is the Turnbull Stakes. 

Searching high and low, I have your best bets for every single Group One race this weekend, but for this tips article, we are focusing on the Epsom Handicap. That’s right everyone, my Saturday tips are ready to go here at OnlyRacing for the Epsom Handicap. So, let’s check it out, shall we?

I think the 2024 Epsom Handicap is going to be run at a fairly fast tempo, with the likes of Major Beel cutting across from a middle barrier to take the lead. Royal Patronage has an outside barrier, so will probably have no choice but to be proactive and take a leading position as well.

It’s a massive field, so expect some mid-race moves from the lightweight runners. Overall, there won’t be cover for all runners, so it may come down to who can find the right spot in the field, or who is good enough to do it without any cover. The current favourite, Ceolwulf, will likely look for cover in the early stages.

Marking down Kovalica as my best bet for the Epsom Handicap and I think he is in for a really good race. Yes, there are a lot of live chances, but I like that JMac sticks with him here, so he clearly sees something in Kovalica. Kovalica is currently on the third line of betting with our friends at PlayUp, with odds of $7.00.

The gelding came second in the Epsom Handicap last year and while he hasn’t seen the winner stall in a while, this is one of his best chances to head back there. Jumping from barrier one gives JMac a lot of options and hopefully, Kovalica won’t have to do any work in the early stages of the race, leaving more in the tank for when he needs it.

I’m putting the current equal favourite as my safe bet for the Epsom Handicap. Ceolwulf is paying $6.50 to win the Group One at the time of writing, thanks to Bet365. He certainly deserves to be up there with some of the more favoured runners, he has put in some good performances recently.

Most notably, he finished second in the Kingston Town Stakes (Group 3) which is also run at Randwick Racecourse. Drops back in trip for this one and like some of the others in this race, deserves a little bit of luck on his side. I think he is coming into this one as fit as ever and has a great shot of finally breaking through for his first Group One victory.

Honestly, there’s a lot of value that can be found in the Epsom Handicap in 2024, but I believe the best value of all lies with Arctic Glamour. She is currently paying $26 to win the race, thanks to our friends at Dabble. She’s on the one-week backup from a third place in the Group Two Golden Pendant.

She gets in super light in the weights as well, just 50kg on her back, compared to 56.5kg for the top-weighted runner. Gets gate six for this one and it will allow jockey Andrew Adkins to get in an excellent position, just off the leaders, if she is good enough. She’s got an amazing turn-of-foot and I just can’t believe the price we are getting for her.

Looking for a little bit of a boilover? Well, I might have found it with Nugget, who always seems to get overlooked in handicap races at Group One level. Along with flying under the radar and acting as my danger bet for the Epsom Handicap, I also think there’s plenty of value to be had here.

Nugget is currently paying $16.50 for the win with QuestBet. Now, do I think he can win? Probably not, but he doesn’t know how to run a bad race and has been unlucky multiple times over the last year, so the luck has to turn around at some point, right? He is middle of the pack in terms of weight but can run with the best of them.

With a field that’s as open as the 2024 Epsom Handicap, there are a lot of roughies out there and I think I’ve managed to find a diamond in the rough with Berkshire Shadow. Berkshire Shadow is paying a whopping $31 to win the race (at the time of writing) thanks to Bet Right. Now, I’m not saying he is going to win, but I have seen weirder things happen.

He comes into the Epsom Handicap third-up and is another that I think has done well to fly under the radar. I’m willing to take a chance on him and his fighting effort in the Cameron Handicap is a big reason why. A sharp improvement is on the cards with this one as I think he is finally properly climatised in Australia after coming from Europe.

All my Epsom Handicap horse racing tips and their odds can be found here:

Bookmaker	Tip	Odds
	Kovalica (each-way)	$7.00/$2.50
	Ceolwulf (each-way)	$6.50/$2.75
	Arctic Glamour (place)	$7.50
	Nugget (place)	$4.90
	Berkshire Shadow (place)	$8.00