The Big Dance Preview and Tips 05/11/24

It’s the biggest day on the racing calendar, Melbourne Cup Day! While we see the race that stops the nation in Melbourne, there’s another key race going down in Sydney, The Big Dance. The newly minted race has already made its mark on the race calendar, but it certainly does play second fiddle to the Melbourne Cup.

For The Big Dance, we see a quality field of 20 runners line up, plus four emergencies, just in case there are any scratchings before the race. Here To Shock will carry the top weight and jump from barrier one. It looks like a three-way contest, with all other runners listed in double digits.

When it comes to Group One races, The Big Dance doesn’t fit in that category, but there’s a mammoth $3 million on the line. I’ve gone through the entire field and come up with my best bets for OnlyRacing. Keep reading as I have selected five runners that I think are set to make a splash on Tuesday.

I reckon the race will probably be run at a fast tempo. The likes of Zouatica have excellent barrier speed and will look to set the pace early. At the time of writing, it looks to be a three-way race with PlayUp. Gringotts, Tavi Time and Here To Shock are the only runners in single digits.

Gringotts will probably look to settle just off the pace, thanks to a wide barrier and will certainly need luck on his side. Tavi Time should settle in around the mid-field and will hope to get the right breaks at the right time. Finally, Here To Shock should easily settle near the leader thanks to the gun barrier.

Here To Shock is carrying the top weight for The Big Dance in 2024, but I think he is certainly the one to beat here. The top weight is counterbalanced by the fact the 7YO gets barrier one. He won’t have to do a bit of work from that barrier and we have seen him carry 60.5kg well enough in the past. 

Here To Shock is currently on the third line of betting with PlayUp and has odds of $5.50. Last time out, we saw him beat home the current favourite, Gringotts, by 0.2L. Jockey Nash Rawiller sticks with him once again, as he has for the last two races, where he won both of them. Expecting big things from Here To Shock.

Gringotts is currently the $3.80 favourite with Bet365 and I think he’ll run a great race, but the wide draw is somewhat of a concern. If anyone can overcome the wide barrier, it’s Gringotts, but I’m not 100% sure, so the honour of the best bet goes to Here To Shock and Gringotts slides in as my safe bet.

He hasn’t had the best of luck so far this prep, finishing second in both races with a combined margin of 0.3L! He’ll need some luck from the barrier and the right breaks at the right time, but if he gets cover early, he’ll be in with a shout. Don’t forget, he is unbeaten in two attempts at the mile, so that works in his favour as well.

A little bit surprised that Suparazi isn’t going around in the single digits, so I’m slotting him in as my value bet. At the time of writing, Dabble is offering $15 for Suparazi to win the race and while I think others are stronger in the field, he can certainly surprise a few and give the top runners a run for their money.

He brings decent form into this one around the likes of Jimmysstar and Plenty Of Ammo, with speedy turn of foot. His closing speeds suggest to me that he’ll eat up the 1,600m and Randwick and he could shock a few on Tuesday. Doesn’t have to carry a lot on his back, so watch for him storming home late.

Tavi Time is one of the three main contenders according to the QuestBet market, which has the 5YO listed on the second line of betting with odds of $5.25 to win The Big Dance. Tavi Time is a great runner who certainly deserves to be respected in the market and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see him go on to win this one.

We last saw him in a BM88 over the same distance he’ll contest on Tuesday, storming home to win by 1.2L. This is a highly quality race, that’s for sure, but the gelding now only has to carry 53kg, which is the lightest weight. He has an excellent strike rate and has won half the races he has competed in (seven from 14). I think Tavi Time is in with a massive shout.

Having a little throw at the stumps with this one, but I think this mare could very well run a decent race at Randwick on Tuesday. She’s currently going around with odds of $31 with Bet Right and there’s decent value there. She was a last-minute addition to The Big Dance after coming second by 0.2L in The Big Dance Wild Card race.

She looked the winner for a long way in that one, but Ducasse just pipped her at the post. Draws barrier seven, which I think will work well for her and maps to get a great run in transit. As long as she doesn’t have to do too much work in the beginning, she’ll have a lot left in the tank for a crack at them in the closing stages at massive odds.

All my The Big Dance horse racing tips and their odds can be found here:

Bookmaker	Tip	Odds
	Here To Shock (win)	$5.50
	Gringotts (each-way)	$3.80/$1.95
	Suparazi (place)	$4.60
	Tavi Time (place)	$2.15
	Vivy Air (place)	$7.50