Melbourne Cup Preview and Tips 05/11/24

Well, here we are - the biggest day of the horse racing calendar - the Melbourne Cup. It is truly the race that stops the nation and we see high-quality action all day at Flemington Racecourse on Tuesday. As always, 24 horses will contest the Melbourne Cup, for a chance to call themselves a Melbourne Cup champion.

The barrier draw has taken place and we now know where each runner will jump from, with the top weight Vauban, getting one of the more successful barriers in recent times (barrier 11). As always, we see a mixture of local and international hopes and it looks to be another highly competitive race.

Group One races don’t really get any better than this, do they? My Melbourne Cup tips have arrived and I have put together five best bets for OnlyRacing, so there is something for everyone. Who do I think will have a cracking race on Tuesday? Well, you’ll have to keep reading to find out!

There are a lot of runners in this one with barrier speed, so I think the race tempo will be fast. The likes of Sea King, Absurde, Vauban, Onesmoothoperator, Just Fine, Land Legend and Fancy Man are all looking to settle somewhere near the front. Whoever can grab the leader role can dictate the pace, unless someone wants to take them on.

Vauban and Buckaroo are currently the equal favourites with PlayUp and I think Vauban will settle just off the leader and Buckaroo will probably settle near the rear of the field, waiting for the right time and the right gaps to open up before letting down and showing the country what he has got.

Onesmoothoperator gets my vote for the best bet of the 2024 Melbourne Cup. The 7YO has only had one race in Australia so far this prep, but boy, was it a good one. Instantly graced the winner’s stall in the Group Three Geelong Cup on October 23. Seemed like a fairly easy win as well, by 2.3L and jockey Craig William retains the ride here.

At the time of writing, Onesmoothoperator is one of the more favoured runners in the market, with odds of $7.50, thanks to PlayUp. It must be noted that the gelding did pull up lame from the Geelong Cup, but trainer Brian Ellison wouldn’t keep him in the Melbourne Cup line up if he wasn’t up to scratch. He has an amazing turn of foot, good enough to win this one.

Can Sea King lead from post to post? That’s the question I’m asking myself because I reckon he’ll look to take the lead in this one and I think he’s got a pretty good chance of a post-to-post victory. He comes into this following a similar pattern to Onesmoothoperator. Last time out was his first run in Australia and it was a win, of course!

He completely dominated in the Group Three Bendigo Cup, winning by a margin of almost 4L. Gets in light at the weights as well, needing to carry just 50.5kg, compared to 55.5kg for the top weight. Has a lot of options from barrier one and even presents some value with the current price of $10, thanks to Bet365. If he gets his way in the opening stages, watch out.

There’s usually a lot of value to be found in the Melbourne Cup, the tough part is picking the value runner that ends up winning. I think I’ve found one that’s a little overs ($16 with Dabble) and should have a great race - Zardozi. I would love to see this Aussie mare take out the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday. Don’t forget, 4YOs have the best record in the Melbourne Cup as well!

She has yet to see the winner’s stall so far this prep but has been a bit unlucky, to say the least. Should have won The Metropolitan a few runs ago and then in the Caulfield Cup, she copped a nasty bump just when she was starting to get going. She’ll be on a very quick turnaround here, after competing in the Empire Rose Stakes on November 2.

If you’re looking for a class horse that is a danger in the Melbourne Cup, look no further than Buckaroo! I think he has some of the best form coming into this one, especially out of the local hopes. Ran on strongly in the Caulfield Cup to finish second, 1.3L off the leader, answering the critics who weren’t sure he could go out to the 2,400m.

I haven’t included him up higher in my Melbourne Cup tips for one big reason. The horror that was the barrier draw. The gelding is jumping from barrier 21 and will need every little bit of magic from “Magic Man” Joao Moreira on Tuesday. Buckaroo does have the form and class, plus he is the equal $6.50 favourite with QuestBet, at the time of writing.

I’ve found you all a massive roughie that I think is just silly odds at the moment. He is paying $71 with Bet Right. Yes, you read that correctly! His recent results on paper might not jump out at you, but when you dig in a little further, you can see he’s had some genuine excuses. It will take a massive effort, but we know the Group One winner has the ability.

He doesn’t do his best work on wet ground and this is something he had to endure through the start of his campaign. Then, last time out, found it all a little too much at Moonee Valley, in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, but still finished third. I think it all seems to be building for this one and as long as he settles in well, can run a blinder at massive odds.

All my Melbourne Cup horse racing tips and their odds can be found here:

Bookmaker	Tip	Odds
	Onesmoothoperator (win)	$7.50
	Sea King (each-way)	$10/$3.50
	Zardozi (each-way)	$16/$4.80
	Buckaroo (place)	$2.40
	Sharp ‘N’ Smart (place)	$12