Thousand Guineas Preview and Tips 16/11/24

Group One racing comes to a close for the year in Melbourne this weekend. Before the curtain closes on an epic Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival, we have two Group One races at Caulfield Racecourse to feast on. So, get ready for one last hoorah before our attention turns West.

At Caulfield, we have the Thousand Guineas and the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. Also, we have The Hunter, which is a Group Two race at Newcastle. We’ve got a good crop of 3YO fillies lining up for the Thousand Guineas this year with 13 runners fighting it out for the lion’s share of the $1.5 million in prize money on the line.

My Saturday tips are hot off the presses here at OnlyRacing and while I have covered all three races touched on above, this specific tips article focuses on the Thousand Guineas. I’ve gone through the entire field and nailed down my best bets for the 2024 edition of the Thousand Guineas, so let’s see who I like the look of!

Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott look to hold the speed cards in this race as Too Darn Lizzie and Dominetta are the ones likely looking for the lead. The pair can set the pace out front and it’s looking to be a moderate race tempo here. 

There are only two runners currently in single digits, Aeliana and Zeitung. Aeliana will likely sit near the rear of the field, waiting for the right time to try and run them all down. It’s looking like more of the same for Zeitung as well. So, if they both get their chance, it could be a duel between the two of them.

Just like in the Sir Rupert Clake Stakes, we have ourselves a two-horse race here in the Thousand Guineas. For me, it’s hard to go past the narrow pre-race favourite, Aeliana. The filly is paying $3.40 to win the Thousand Guineas on Saturday, with PlayUp. I think it’s not a matter if she wins, but by how much.

She is looking for her third victory in a row after winning back-to-back Group Three races. The Chris Waller-trained filly won the Carbine Club Stakes last time out by 3.5L, now she gets back to her own sex and contests the first Group One of her career. James McDoland steps up again and it’s all pointing to Aeliana for me.

I reckon the second-favourite, Zeitung, has a good chance in this one, but she’s a little too short for me and I like the look of Stage ‘N’ Screen. The filly is currently on the third line of betting with Bet365, at odds of $12 to win. We’ve only seen the filly race twice so far, but they have both been great.

This is a step up here for sure, but she won on debut by 2L and then finished fourth by 1.8L in The Amanda Elliott. She steps up to the 1,600m now and it doesn’t look to be of any concern. Will probably settle in just behind the leaders and wait for the right time to give this a red-hot crack.

Lovelycut stays in Melbourne, where she has been this entire prep. Her only run so far at Caulfield Racecourse was first-up in the Listed Gothic Stakes, where she finished second, 0.4L off the pace. Her last start run resulted in a fourth in The Vanity (Group Three). Lovelycut is currently paying $12 for the win at Dabble.

She ran with intent there and I think if she gets a more patient run, she’ll be right in this one. Damian Lane retains the ride, so he’ll be all the better for that experience on Lovelycut under his belt. I can see why she isn’t the favourite or close to it, but I think there’s a bit of value there at the current price.

Don’t really think Zeitung should be as short as she is, currently on the second line of betting at $4.30 with QuestBet, but she is certainly one to watch and is capable of winning this on her day. She gets a good barrier as well, so this does work in her favour and she can settle near the back of the small field without putting in any effort.

We last saw the filly winning at Group Three level in The Vanity. In her run before that, she finished second in the Group Two Thousand Guineas Prelude. She’s got a good level of fitness and the extra 200m she’ll get here from her last run looks to work for her as well. Another effort like the one in The Vanity will give her every chance.

I really do like the look of Supercilious and reckon she can run a good race at decent odds. The filly is currently paying $21 to win the 2024 Thousand Guineas with Bet Right. She has been good without winning so far this prep, with a couple of third places and a second place under her belt.

Last time out, we saw her in The Amanda Elliott on Melbourne Cup Day, where she finished third, 1.6L off the winner. She got a bit too far back in that one, but still tried her guts out, finishing strongly. Gets an additional 200m in this one and will have more options from a friendlier barrier draw. She has a genuine top-three chance I think.

All my Thousand Guineas horse racing tips and their odds can be found here:

Bookmaker	Tip	Odds
	Aeliana (win)	$3.40
	Stage ‘N’ Screen (place)	$3.50
	Lovelycut (place)	$3.70
	Zeitung (place)	$1.80
	Supercilious (place)	$5.25