Victoria Derby Preview and Tips 02/11/24

Hello, Derby Day! It’s that wonderful time of year when there’s a Saturday jam-packed with Group One races, but that’s all just a build-up to the main event, the Melbourne Cup, in just a couple of days. We see high-quality racing at two tracks in particular this weekend, with the Victoria Derby taking place at Flemington Racecourse.

Along with the Victoria Derby at Flemington, we also see the Coolmore Stud Stakes and the Empire Rose Stakes. Things are heating up in Sydney as well, with The Golden Eagle, the Rosehill Gold Cup and the Russell Balding Stakes all taking place at Rosehill Racecourse. Christmas has come early for racing fans, that’s for sure!

My Saturday tips for the Victoria Derby have officially landed. Don’t forget that I will also be tipping the five other races mentioned above, so check them out as well to get your fill of best bets here at OnlyRacing. It’s shaping up to be another cracking edition of the Victoria Derby, so let’s see who I like this year!

We have come to expect early speed in the Victoria Derby, especially from those who have drawn wide and are trying to find the rail as quickly as possible. Things tend to slow down after the initial jump from the blocks.

I think runners like El Castello (the current favourite), Hot Too Go, Oxford Blue and West Indies will continue the pattern from wide barriers. I think Politely Dun has some of the fastest closing speeds, so look for him storming home late.

Sticking with the fave, El Castello here. The 3YO is having the prep only dreams are made of, winning all four of his races so far. He has been propelled into the spotlight from a maiden victory back in September to a victory in the Group One Spring Champion Stakes last time out. I can certainly see why he is the current $3.80 favourite here, with PlayUp.

I reckon the market has the price right with El Castello, he isn’t a $2.00 pop because he is on the quick turnaround from the Spring Champion Stakes and has to travel interstate for this one. As long as he can handle those two minor speedbumps well enough, he is clearly the one to beat.

If El Castello doesn’t handle the one-week turnaround or the trip interstate, the one who I think can take advantage is King Of Thunder. The gelding is also on the one-week back up, after competing in the Group Two The Vase, but doesn’t have to make the trip interstate. King Of Thunder draws barrier one and gets the services of James McDonald.

Comes into this race third-up after finishing third, just 0.3L off the leader. The slow tempo didn’t suit him much last time out and I think he’ll get a tempo more to his liking this time out. The 3YO is one of the more favoured runners in the market right now, with odds of $6.00 to win, thanks to Bet365.

If the above two runners aren’t to your liking, then I think I’ve found a smidge of value with Red Aces. Red Aces is currently on the third line of betting at Dabble, with odds of $7.50 to win the Victoria Derby. The 3YO proved too good in The Vase last time out at Moonee Valley, winning by 0.2L.

There is plenty of room for improvement in this colt and while this is his first attempt at Group One level, I don’t think that will faze him. He is tackling this one fourth-up and has shown improvement in every run so far. He gets a soft gate here, so hopefully things will go his way and he’ll have a crack at winning this one, or at least finishing top three.

I reckon Goldrush Guru is flying under the radar a bit and looks to be the danger to watch for mine. I’m not exactly sure if he’s good enough to win this, but at odds of $10.50 with QuestBet, I’ll be having something on the place. The South Australian-trained runner makes his way to Victoria.

The colt has had a lot of success in South Australia so far this prep, with three wins and two seconds. His last start in particular was amazing to watch. He was sent around the $1.55 favourite and put them all in their place, winning by 2.3L. This is certainly a step up, but he is super fit and I think he could prove a few people wrong.

Politely Dun could have easily found himself as my value bet for the Victoria Derby, but he slots in as my best roughie, with current odds of $11 thanks to Bet Right. We see another runner coming through The Vase at Moonee Valley and in that one, Politely Dun finished fourth.

Looks like Politely Dun is shortening a smidge, he opened at $15 and is now sitting at $11, which I think is about right for him. I reckon he will enjoy the 2,500m that’s on offer here and he gets the services of Damian Lane here. Politely Dun will have to use all of that closing speed he possesses to run over the top of all of them here.

All my Victoria Derby horse racing tips and their odds can be found here:

Bookmaker	Tip	Odds
	El Castello (win)	$3.80
	King Of Thunder (each-way)	$6.00/$2.40
	Red Aces (place)	$2.65
	Goldrush Guru (place)	$3.40
	Politely Dun (place)	$3.50