Ran over 1600m for the 3yos with 750k up for grabs. Excellent race this with the lightly raced runners stepping out to the mile for the first time. Should be a moderately run race with Tropical Squall the only real speed in the race. Tiz Invincible will look to roll forward from the wide gate with some speed under her belt. Outside of those two the rest of the settling positions will be up for grabs.
Saturday’s G1’s – Royal Randwick 30/09/23
Darley Flight Stakes
1 –1 TizInvicible
Drawn wide here but has the speed to cross them pretty easy and the long run down the back of the 1600m will give her enough time to. 3/3 this prep. Won first-up over 1100m in Listed company. Stepped out to 1200m second-up and ran a solid rating with good late splits, winning by 0.8L. Last start, third-up, stepped out to the 1400m and won by 1.5L, again running very good late splits. On pace type this and should really enjoy stretching the legs out to 1600m fourth-up. Lots of horses here have followed the same prep however Tiz Invincible looks a class above. Think she’ll start shorter.
3u at $2.7
2 – 7 Mollyknickers
Ran an excellent rating two starts back over the 1400m at Caulfield running her L200m -2.3L race average. Dropped back to 1200m after a short freshen up finishing 4th 1.5L but again running on very well late. Should enjoy the trip here, fitness may be an issue. Draws the rails here and could box seat.
1u at $8
3 – Kimochi
Finished 2nd behind Tiz Invincible her last 2, well beaten in the last with TizInvicible running away late. Gets a good run-in transit here if she can take up a forward spot however not much confidence.
The Tab Epsom
The second G1 of the day over the famous Randwick mile sees the 21 horse field battle it out for $1.5m. Always a cracking race this but is always extremely difficult to find the winner with the current favourite The Inevitable going round at $7 and only 4 horses in single figure odds. Surprisingly doesn’t look like there will be a lot of speed here with Going Global rolling forward and Rediener, Communist, Converge and Nugget from the wide draw all up on the speed.
1 – 3 The Inevitable
Third start in Aus and has made an impression already as the current favourite. He finished 3rd 1.1L Mr Brightside over 1600m, carrying 59kg in his first Aus start, running super figures and an excellent L200m, spelled after. He returned with a bang finishing 2nd 0.2L Golden Mile over the 1300m after getting well back in the slowly run race, run of the race. He ran his L200m -2.1L race average. Steps up to the 1600m carrying 55.5 and draws nicely to enjoy a good run midfield off the rails.
1u at $7
2 – 11 Nugget
Have landed on the Maher and Eustace trained runner here. Has some very good 1600m form once you dissect it a little bit. He won well at Kembla Grange over the 1600m second-up last prep (second-up today), carrying 61kg in BM88 company. He then backed that up with a win over this track and trip carrying 61kg in the same class at $1.75. He went down to Melbourne and contested a couple of G1s and an open class race where he was beaten 0.3L by Jacquinot carrying 59kg over 1400m, 3.7L Alligator Blood carrying 59kg over 1400m and 2.2L Mr Brightside carrying 59kg over 1600m in the $5m All Star Mile. He then came back to Sydney and finished 3rd 1L Mr Brightside in the Doncaster carrying 51.5kg after sitting 8 horse lengths off the rails. He returned well last start over the 1300m beaten 1.1 by Golden Mile when carrying 58 and comes into this race second-up carrying 54kg. Draw is tricky but has speed and the long back straight will give him time to cover it.
1u at $9
Always an intriguing race this ran over 2400m early-ish in spring. Lots of speed here with the template Gai Waterhouse runner, Knights Order looking to turn this into a real staying contest. Short priced favourite Just Fine will likely take a sit from 2 and enjoy the absolute dream run. Major Beel will look to take a sit close to the speed from the good gate with Spirit Ridge and and Future History looking to roll forward from the wide gate ahead of Military Mission and Hoisier, lots of speed from out wide and will all be looking to press on.
1 – 14 Just Fine
Tough to go past him here carrying the 50kg. 2/2 in Aus with wins over the 1600m carrying 55.5kg and an exceptional rating when winning over the 2000m carrying 55kg. Third-up here out to 2400m and will enjoy an absolute peach of a run in transit.
3u at $1.75
2 – 17 Mr Waterville
The Waller trained import didn’t show much in his first start in Aus over 1600m finishing 7th 5.1. He quickly improved over the 1900m last start finishing 4th 3.7L carrying 58kg. He ran a solid rating and finished his race off very strongly. The quick back-up here from Waller is for sure measured. Will enjoy the good speed from out the back with the 50kg on his back.
3 – 12
He had big expectations early in his career but has disappointed since. He has strung together a couple of good runs winning at Wyong over 2100m with 54kg on his back. He then finished 1.8L behind Just Fine over the 2000m. Enjoys a drop in weight (less significant than Just Fines), barrier 1 and getting out a little in distance.