Winterbottom Stakes Preview and Tips 30/11/24

Western Australia continues to shine with Group One races for the next couple of weeks. We had the Railway Stakes last weekend and now we have the Winterbottom Stakes this Saturday, then next weekend it’s the Northerly Stakes. All three Group One races take place at Ascot Racecourse.

As we have come to expect in the Winterbottom Stakes, we see a big field of 16 runners and there’s a lot of class in there as well. The 2023 winner, Overpass, is looking to make it two-from-two as the pre-race favourite and the likes of Western Empire and Lady Laguna are hot on his heels.

My Saturday tips for the Winterbottom Stakes have landed here at OnlyRacing and I’ve gone through each and every runner in the field to handpick the ones I think are due for a great run at Ascot. In all, I’ve put together five best bets for our readers, so there is certainly something for everyone!

There are a few runners in this with solid barrier speed and the key speed runners have mostly drawn wide barriers, so expect them to use their speed to cut across the field to leave the race. The likes of Overpass, Bravo Centurion and Boots Like Bruce could very well all be fighting it out in front.

With PlayUp, Overpass is the current favourite and he draws the widest barrier of them all. Some of the other more favoured runners in the race, Western Empire and Lady Laguna, will likely settle further back, looking for the perfect time to strike later on in the race. The last 400m is likely the time they’ll be looking to strike.

Can Overpass do it again? Well, if you ask me, the answer is yet. The gelding was the favourite leading into the 2023 edition of the Winterbottom Stakes and he prevailed then. This year, he is also the favourite ($3.00 at the time of writing with PlayUp) and I’ve got him down for back-to-back victories. 

It looks as though Overpass is going to have to do it the hard way this year, drawing the widest barrier of them all. However, thanks to his barrier speed, I reckon he’ll be able to cut across the field and lead them. This makes the jump critical and the better his start, the greater his chance of winning becomes. Favourites perform well here usually as well.

If the start doesn’t go particularly well for Overpass, I think the one who is most likely to swoop in and take advantage is Western Empire. The gelding has been very lightly raced and we’ve only seen him once so far this prep, where he finished second in a Group 3. Western Empire is currently on the second line of betting with Bet365, at odds of $3.80.

It took a little bit of time for Western Empire to build in that run, but he ended up finishing just 0.8L off the leader, which isn’t too bad. William Pike retained the ride for this one and we know just how good Pikey is out West. The rise to 1,200m looks like a good call and he draws barrier four. There’s a lot to like!

For my value play in the 2024 Winterbottom Stakes, I’ve sided with Maharba. The 4YO is currently going around with odds of $10 at Dabble and there’s a lot of upside in this gelding, with a top-three finish certainly on the cards. We last saw Maharba in a Group 3 at Flemington, where he won by just 0.1L.

Jockey Jordan Child retains the ride and makes the trip West, so that’s a good sign. Interstate runners have been fairly dominant in the Winterbottom Stakes in the past, winning 11 of the last 16 and Maharba comes into the race as one of just three interstate runners. Gets the opportunity of options thanks to the barrier draw and can run well.

I think it is very possible that Lady Laguna can ruffle a few features here and claim victory in this one, with current odds of $5.00 thanks to QuestBet. If you take her three runs so far this prep at face value, she hasn’t really set the world on fire, especially her run last time out in the Group One Champions Sprint.

However, she was on the quick turnaround from a mammoth effort in the Russell Balding Stakes, coming in third. I don’t think that suited her very well, so I’m willing to forgive and put a line through her last start. JMac makes the trip to Perth for the ride here and gets the gun barrier draw (one). Expecting a lot of improvement here.

Like a lot of my best roughies lately, I’m having a little bit of a throw at the stumps with Rockin' Rupert. The gelding is gone virtually untouched in the market and is currently going around with odds of $61, thanks to Bet Right. I think he’s worth more of our time than people think and I’ll be having something small on him.

He is coming through the Group Three Colonel Reeves Stakes, which is also run at Ascot and he finished fifth in that one, 3.2L off the leader. The gelding was a bit unlucky in that one after being held up at critical stages. I think he’ll perform well at the distance and comes into this with some decent recent form under his belt. Can run a surprising race.

All my Winterbottom Stakes horse racing tips and their odds can be found here:

Bookmaker	Tip	Odds
	Overpass (win)	$3.00
	Western Empire (each-way)	$3.80/$1.75
	Maharba (place)	$3.20
	Lady Laguna (place)	$1.88
	Rockin' Rupert (place)	$10