Wednesday Racing Tips - Mornington Racecourse 28/12/22

Selections:
#4 - Commodus - $4.40 - (NEXT BEST)
#3 - Coaxial - $5.50
#8 - Running On Time - $2.90
#5 - Aminikii - $5.00

BEST BET - #4 Commodus - (NEXT BEST)
Commodus is dropping back in grade here and as such has been racing in much better company than this, Last run was solid at Sandown but was stormed over in the last 400 metres to finish 5th in a big field. Has three placings this prep so I believe the talent is there, maps to just sit around / just behind the speed and charge late. 

VALUE BET - #5 - Aminikii 
Aminikii was nowhere last time out at Sandown when racing in the city in tougher grade, however placed 2nd up last time out and raced well in the mid year prep, picking up a win and a few placings. I think that even though he was vetted with no abnormalities something wasn’t particularly right last time out and could see a sharp improvement this time out, include in exotics.
 
THE DANGER - #3 - Coaxial 
Coaxial is a talented horse who I have love for and have followed previously, has just the won this price but that was up a grade and also had the gun run there at Geelong over a similar distance to this. However, maps to be near the front in a race without much speed and the competition drops, jockey is a bit of a query but still dangerous.

Selections:
#6 - State Squad - $2.80 - (BEST BET)
#1 - Bass - $5.00
#2 - Badiss - $3.80
#5 - Art Major - $8.00

BEST BET - #6 State Squad  - (BEST BET)
State squad made his return from a long spell last time out racing in the city at Sandown when going against everything and placing second at $20 odds, defying his map. That was behind St Lawrence who is a very smart horse and who I was on that day, tipped by Jeison, another one of our writers. I think that dropping down in grade and jumping sharply up in trip means the stable has confidence in their runner and I look forward to seeing what happens.

VALUE BET - #1 - Bass 
Bass races for the Yargi stable who are good with the stayers, Bass retains top weight for this after racing under the same weight (61kg) at Sandown last time out, Drops back from the city. Had a really nice run last time out showing big improvement and will improve again here. I think he is a top chance for exotics.

THE DANGER - #2 - Badiss 
Badiss races under Ethan Brown who is another top jockey at this track. Badiss looks to be a smart horse who surprised punters last time out at Sandown to place at long odds. However, I’m more interested in the run, he looked to have plenty in hand and I think he wants longer. He gets that here and I think will be close between him and State squad. 

Selections:
#5 - Discerning - $2.90
#3 - San Telmos Fire - $3.20
#6 - Mystery Eclipse - $8.50 - (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY)
#7 - Fly Nice - $5.50

BEST BET - #5 -Discerning 
Discerning was a forgive last time out at Pakenham when first up racing in BM70 grade against a few smart horses such as Red Card amongst others. The form from that reads well, I think he will improve sharply here, showed talent last prep and I think in a close race he’s a top chance.

VALUE BET - #6 - Mystery Eclipse - (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY)
Going to put Mystery Eclipse on top as my roughie of the day here, Daniel Moor retains the ride for the horses third run this prep and has been running well, with a win when Fresh and a third placing in 2 runs when he looked the winner again but was pinched in the last 25 metres of the race. This race doesn’t look much harder, he should be fitter, just not sure what the tactics are, if he crosses and leads early or sits just around/off the speed. Either way, I think he is over the odds.

THE DANGER - #3 - San Telmos Fire
San Telmos Fire gets Melham on and confuses me a bit but I think in this softer company and with the right run as well as Melham on board I am willing to back him to be in the placings if not take this out. He won 2 runs back in good time when taking over in the last 200m and just holding them off. Softer run and company now.  

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Ben Melham is one of the top jockey’s this season at Mornington and one of the better in the outside of city Victorian Racing at the moment. Top stables are often booking him and that is the case we see here with 5 winners in 12 rides recently at this track. I am on a few of his rides and think he gets an overall good selection of bookings.

R2 - #1 Alaskan Storm - $3.00
R3 - #2 Arctic Eagle - $5.10
R6 - #6 State Squad - $2.80
R7 - #3 San Telmos Fire - $3.20
R8 - #9 Kaido - $2.90

For my multi today I have gone with a same race multi in Race 7 as well as my best runner of the meeting in race 6 for some decent odds in what I think to be a safer bet than my regular multis.

Follow my Multi below for Mornington this Wednesday:

R6 - #6 State Squad - WIN $2.80
R7 - SAME RACE MULTI:
#6 Mystery Eclipse - PLC$3.50
#3 San Telmos Fire - PLC $1.80
SAME RACE MULTI - $6.3

Total Odds = $17.64
$50 Stake = $882 Return!

Odds provided by PlayUp, sign up for a new account here to get started.

I have gone with a trifecta on Race 7 for the Mornington race meeting as I have tipped the top few selections which appear to be the ones going to fight this one out. I think my roughie of the day along with the other three top selections should fight out 2nd and 3rd and that there are some bigger chances that can squeeze into third.

Our experts have curated a bet type information page which delves into all the different types of exotics betting, check it out for clarification on the different types of exotics betting or just to brush up on your knowledge.

Trifecta Tip (Mornington R7) 

1st: 3, 5, 6
2nd, 3, 5, 6
3rd: 2,3,4,5,6,7

$50 stake = 208.33% Flexi (VIC TOTE)

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